Hindcast

Tested against what happened.

Forewatch is new, so there is no client history to show. Instead, we ran the method over the past: every attack on merchant shipping we could find in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since the Houthis declared their ban on 20 July 2026, and every ship they named as hit, each screened as it would have been the day before, with only the criteria in force then.

As at 26 October 2026Hits and misses alike

10 criteria in force
The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden: every attack and claimed attack on shipping from 20 July to 26 October 2026, each marked with the outcome a screening the day before would have givenEGYPTSUDANERITREAETHIOPIASAUDI ARABIAYEMENSOMALIAGULF OF ADENRED SEASUEZYANBUJEDDAHJIZANHODEIDAHADENDJIBOUTI1,200 KM FROM HODEIDAHENCELIA22 JULANCC GHAZAL27 JULANCC WAFA5 AUGADAISY5 AUGAAMZAN24 AUGA35°E40°E45°E15°N20°N25°N30°N
Mokha and Bab el-MandebInset: Mokha and Bab el-Mandeb, where the attacks outside every criterion took placeYEMENHODEIDAHDHUBABPERIMFAIZE NOORE OLIYA4 AUGDMOKHA PORT9 TO 15 AUGDTIHAMAH11 AUGDLANDING CRAFT17 AUGDCHRYSTAL SKY4 OCTCUL KLANG7 OCT20 NM
Positions as first reported; approximate where ringed. No position was reported for LAYLA or NCC MASA.
20 Jul to 26 Oct 2026
13 incidents in fourteen weeks
  • 7 Saudi-linked: all A
  • 4 tied to Mokha: under no criterion
  • 2 listed, not scored

Select a mark for its screening.

Under a criterion the Houthis declaredThe same, for a claim nothing confirmsIncomplete: under no criterion, a link not establishedNot scoredDrag along the dates to step through the weeks

  1. 20 Jul 2026Saudi shipping and Saudi ports declared

    The Houthis declare a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia and ban loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports. With the ban on Israeli shipping, the sanctions notice and the official advisory then in force: four declared, four official.

    8 in force · 4 declared, 4 official
  2. 16 Aug 2026Government-linked vessels added

    An official update reads Houthi targeting as aimed at Saudi- or Yemeni-government-linked assets. Not in the Houthis’ own words: one uncertain criterion.

    9 in force · 4 declared, 4 official, 1 uncertain
  3. 23 Sep 2026A new official advisory

    It names Saudi association, and fleets that call at Saudi ports, as higher risk, and drops fleets that call at Israeli ports: five official.

    10 in force · 4 declared, 5 official, 1 uncertain

Every incident, screened the day before.

For each ship, the links that decide its outcome and what was found on them. Where a fact was never published, the link stays undetermined, and the outcome says so.

Saudi-linked

Seven ships: four confirmed attacks, two claims nothing confirms, one matched by place and time. Outcome A, all seven.

  1. Hindcast as at21 Jul
    Declared target profile

    ENCELIA

    Products tanker · Saudi flag

    Hit by a projectile in the southern Red Sea, laden and sailing south. Fire put out; no casualties.

    Claimed by the Houthis.

    • FlagSaudi ArabiaC2 · Declared
    • OperatorBihar International, JeddahC2 · Declared

    Saudi flag and a Saudi operator: Saudi shipping, which the Houthis had declared a target on 20 July.

  2. Hindcast as at21 Jul
    Declared target profile

    LAYLAClaim, not confirmed

    VLCC · Saudi flag

    Claimed as hit. Nothing independent confirms it; the tanker was back on AIS in the northern Red Sea on 28 July.

    Claimed by the Houthis.

    • FlagSaudi ArabiaC2 · Declared
    • Owner and managerBahriC2 · Declared

    Saudi flag and a Saudi owner: Saudi shipping.

  3. Hindcast as at23 Jul
    Declared target profile

    NCC MASA

    Chemical and products tanker · Saudi flag

    Minor damage to the hull while sailing in the Red Sea; it went on to its destination, crew safe.

    Reported by the Saudi transport authority as an attack; no attacker named; not claimed.

    • FlagSaudi ArabiaC2 · Declared
    • OwnerNational Chemical Carriers, Bahri groupC2 · Declared

    Saudi flag and a Saudi owner: Saudi shipping.

  4. Hindcast as at26 Jul
    Declared target profile

    NCC GHAZALMatched by place and time

    Chemical and products tanker · Saudi flag

    The master of a Saudi-flagged tanker off Jizan reported hearing an explosion; vessel and crew safe. The Houthis claimed NCC GHAZAL the next day: the match is by place and time.

    Claimed by the Houthis on 28 July.

    • FlagSaudi ArabiaC2 · Declared
    • OwnerNational Chemical Carriers, Bahri groupC2 · Declared

    Saudi flag and a Saudi owner: Saudi shipping.

  5. Hindcast as at4 Aug
    Declared target profile

    NCC WAFAClaim, not confirmed

    Products tanker · Saudi flag

    Claimed as hit off Yanbu, as WAFA. Not confirmed; the tanker had been dark on AIS since mid-July.

    Claimed by the Houthis.

    • FlagSaudi ArabiaC2 · Declared
    • OwnerNational Chemical Carriers, Bahri groupC2 · Declared

    Saudi flag and a Saudi owner: Saudi shipping.

  6. Hindcast as at4 Aug
    Declared target profile

    DAISY

    Small tanker · Dominica flag

    A loud explosion close alongside in the Gulf of Aden, 95 nm south-east of Aden. Minor damage; it went on to Djibouti.

    Claimed by the Houthis.

    • FlagDominicaNot present
    • OperatorBihar International, Saudi ArabiaC2 · Declared

    The flag shows nothing. The operator is Saudi, and on the method’s reading that alone puts it under C2, Saudi shipping: a check of the flag would have missed it, the six links did not.

  7. Hindcast as at23 Aug
    Declared target profile

    AMZAN

    VLCC · Saudi flag

    Hit 63 nm west of Yanbu, on passage from Ain Sukhna to Yanbu. Deck fire put out; crew safe. The campaign’s furthest confirmed strike from Yemen.

    Claimed by the Houthis; the owner confirmed an incident.

    • FlagSaudi ArabiaC2 · Declared
    • Owner and operatorBahriC2 · Declared

    Saudi flag, Saudi owner and operator. It was also bound for Yanbu, which brings in C1, the ban on Saudi ports, for any cargo worked there.

At, off or bound for Mokha

Four attacks outside every criterion in force.

  1. Hindcast as at3 Aug
    Incomplete

    FAIZE NOORE OLIYA

    Sailing cargo vessel · Indian flag

    Hit 9 nm off the coast south of Hodeidah by an uncrewed explosive boat; bound for Mokha with civilian goods, officials said. It caught fire and sank; all 14 aboard were rescued.

    Not claimed; the Yemeni government blames the Houthis.

    • FlagIndiaNot present
    • Owner and operatorNot foundUndetermined
    • Ports on this voyageDjibouti to MokhaNot present
    • Previous port callsDark on AIS for 44 daysUndetermined

    Flag and voyage fell under no criterion in force. Owner and earlier calls could not be established: D, incomplete. Not a pass: one report had it carrying Saudi oil, which C1 would have covered if loaded at a Saudi port after 20 July.

  2. Hindcast as at8 Aug
    Incomplete

    Vessels in Mokha port

    Wooden cargo vessels and a rig · government-held port

    Missile and drone strikes from 9 August damaged six wooden vessels and a rig, and sank a cargo vessel; two crew died aboard one of them. Port operations were suspended on 15 August.

    Claimed by the Houthis as hits on “warships” of Saudi-backed forces.

    • PortsMokha, held by the governmentNot present
    • OwnersA Yemeni citizen, for the one vessel namedNot present
    • FlagsNever publishedUndetermined

    No criterion in force covered vessels in a government-held port, and most names and flags were never published: D.

  3. Hindcast as at10 Aug
    Incomplete

    TIHAMAH

    General cargo vessel · Tanzanian flag

    Hit by missiles while stationary 5 nm off Mokha, then struck again as rescuers arrived: six killed, four of them crew, according to the coast guard; the transport ministry gave four. Yemen’s government said it was a civilian ship carrying food; its cargo was never independently confirmed.

    A “Saudi ship carrying military equipment”, said the Houthi-run news agency.

    • FlagTanzaniaNot present
    • OperatorBlue Sea for Management Marine, Dubai branchNot present
    • OwnerYemeni or Egyptian: sources disagreeUndetermined

    The Houthis called it Saudi after the strike; its registry and operator show no Saudi link. No criterion covered its trade with the government-held coast, and with its owner in dispute: D.

  4. Hindcast as at16 Aug
    Incomplete

    Landing craft, name withheld

    Unmanned · at anchor off Mokha

    Six missiles, five hits; a total loss. Out of service, with no crew or cargo aboard, it lay at anchor beside the ship hit on 11 August. Reports of its position differ: 5 nm off the coast, or about 40 nm south-east of Mokha.

    Likely the claimed “military landing ship belonging to the Saudi enemy”.

    • Flag, operator and ownerNever publishedUndetermined

    Officials had added vessels linked to the Yemeni government the day before. Nothing published tied this craft to the government, or to any other criterion: D.

Listed, not scored

Not claimed, and not reported by officials as an attack on the ship.

  1. Not scored
    Not scored

    CHRYSTAL SKY

    Products tanker · Marshall Islands flag

    A loud explosion in the air within 100 m of the bow in Bab el-Mandeb, then smaller ones; no damage or injuries.

    Not claimed. Officially a probable intercepted aerial threat, with no attribution.

    Listed, not scored: not claimed, and reported by officials as a probable interception with no one attributed, not as an attack on the ship.

  2. Not scored
    Not scored

    CUL KLANGMatched by place and time

    Container ship · Singapore flag

    Shots from a small craft 12 nm west of Dhubab, in the traffic lanes; no damage. The match to this ship is by place and time.

    Not claimed. Officially, likely warning shots by local fishermen.

    Listed, not scored: not claimed, and not reported by officials as an attack.

The Houthis claim more Saudi ships than they name: on 5 August they spoke of eight. A claimed attack that names no ship, and that no report confirms, cannot be screened and is not counted here.

Piracy, outside the campaign and not scored: LUTUF hijacked off Somalia and SEAMULL in the Gulf of Aden in August, GLAMOR boarded south of Yemen in September; a skiff chased a tanker east of Aden on 17 September, and another fired on an LNG tanker south-east of Mukalla on 17 October.

Not found or outside the test: a few incident reports from August and September could not be tied to a ship, and no official update after 18 October could be found. The Houthis’ claim of 22 October that Saudi forces targeted an Indian yacht near Zuqar is not a Houthi attack, and India could not confirm it.

What this shows, and what it does not.

A hindcast tests one thing: whether the ships that were attacked would have been found. Read it for that, and no further.

It shows

  • What the Houthis declared pointed to the Saudi ships before they were hit.All seven Saudi-linked ships hit or claimed fell under a criterion published beforehand. A screening the day before would have found each, DAISY through its operator alone: its flag said nothing.
  • Where facts were missing, the method said so.An owner nobody could find never became a clean result: the outcome was D, with the missing link named.

It does not show

  • How many ships with outcome A sailed unharmed.Many did. Every ship that worked cargo at a Saudi port fell under C1, and none was confirmed hit for that alone. A says that a declared criterion applies to the ship, not that an attack will follow.
  • That C or D means safe.Four attacks tied to Mokha fell outside every criterion in force. The Houthis described three of them as Saudi or Saudi-backed; nothing published made them so.
  • What comes next.Criteria change overnight. Every dossier holds as at its reference date, and is watched until the vessel sails.
Criteria follow events.

Officials began to read vessels linked to the Yemeni government as targets on 16 August, after three of the four attacks tied to Mokha and partly because of them. On what was published, even that reading would not have flagged those ships: the fourth, the next day, still came out D. No screening flags a ship that no criterion describes, which is why no outcome is a safe-conduct pass.

How the test was run

The same rules as the sample dossier.

The criteria, the six links and the rule that decides are the ones in the sample dossier. They were written in October, after these attacks: a hindcast shows that the method agrees with what happened, not that it saw it coming.

  1. 01Every incident in the window

    Every attack on a merchant vessel we found reported in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden from 20 July to 26 October 2026, and every ship the Houthis named as hit.

  2. 02The day before

    Each vessel screened against the criteria in force the day before it was hit. A criterion published later does not count.

  3. 03Facts as published

    Flag, operator, owners and voyage from registry and commercial vessel databases, owners, governments and the press, retrieved in October 2026. Where sources disagree or are silent, the link is undetermined.

  4. 04One fixed rule

    A link under a declared criterion gives A; under an official or uncertain one, B. All six established and none under a criterion gives C; otherwise D. No weighting.

  5. 05Claims marked as claims

    A claim that nothing independent confirms is shown as one. A claimed attack that names no ship, and that no report confirms, cannot be screened and is not counted.

  6. 06What is scored

    Incidents the Houthis claimed, or that an official body reported as an attack on the ship. The rest are listed, not scored. Piracy is left out.

Your next voyage, screened the same way.

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Sources. Houthi military statements and HOCC notices; official advisories, advisory updates and incident reports, described here by type; flag-state registry records and commercial vessel databases; statements by owners and governments; Reuters, AP, AFP, Lloyd’s List and the maritime press. As at 26 October 2026.